bellwether counties epoch times
Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. I think we needed somebody like him.. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. I trust the system implicitly, he said. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Weve never done that before.. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Jim Hoft. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? Two states have announced recounts. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Its just stupid, she said. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. bellwether. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. I dont watch TV. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. In addition to Florida Gov. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. I think all politicians are crooks. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. . That is, until this year. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. "If. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. I dont listen to the news. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Peoples common sense level is cooked. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. I would never vote any other way. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. 0:00 0:00. . dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. What you need to know, summarized in one email. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Thus it would appear that bellwether. I think thats what the world needed. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Theres too much corruption. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. Nothing is free, Hawker said. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. We need election reform.. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Pre-performance Lobby events. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. I believe in a time cycle. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Their fear is real, mine is. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). And it can happen.. I kind of keep in my bubble. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. What happened to our Democratic Party? I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. This includes personalizing content and advertising. It will cycle through. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Im looking at both sides of it. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Blaine County. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. . Please read our comments policy before commenting. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout.